Just days before the start of hurricane season, federal storm experts announced on Thursday that they are expecting less tropical activity than usual in the Atlantic this year.
The forecast comes after a relatively quiet hurricane season for Tampa Bay in 2025. And while this year’s forecast is good news for the hurricane-weary region, it’s far from a surefire bet that Florida will be storm-free.
Hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said they are expecting eight to 14 named storms, of which three to six could become hurricanes and one to three could fire up to a major hurricane, a Category 3 or higher.
While speaking in Lakeland at the agency’s Aircraft Operations Center, officials said they are anticipating a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.
“Even though we’re expecting a below-average season in the Atlantic, it’s very important to understand it only takes one,” said Neil Jacobs, the agency’s administrator.
The hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
A typical hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The main ingredient behind the forecast: an aggressive El Niño expected to arrive during the hurricane season.
In April, Colorado State University released its own early season forecast. The school, renowned for its hurricane research, expects the season will be “somewhat below-average.” The university also attributed its outlook to the coming El Niño.
The year-to-year global climate pattern unfolds in three phases: El Niño, La Niña and a neutral stage.
The cycle corresponds to changes in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that affect weather across the globe. For now, the globe is in neutral conditions.
El Niño conditions typically tamp down Atlantic hurricane activity by boosting wind shear that tears up storms trying to develop.
The coming atmospheric shift could bring a “super El Niño,” according to most models. At least one model expects it to be record-breaking.
Experts cautioned it was too early to tell just how strong it may be. Forecasts this early in the year can be more inaccurate than later outlooks updated as the season progresses.
An El Niño is not a guarantee that the region will be storm free, Jeff Masters a writer at Yale Climate Connections, previously told the Tampa Bay Times.
“And Tampa should pay attention to the fact that 2023 was a year anticipated to be similar to this year,” he said.
That was the year Hurricane Idalia struck Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 3 storm, bringing with it up to 12 feet of storm surge. Idalia also flooded many low-lying areas of Tampa Bay with storm surge.
Forecasters often look to sea surface temperatures when developing early season outlooks. Officials said Thursday that temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal, and that the Gulf of Mexico is still warm after no storms traversed its waters last year.
Balmy waters can fuel developing storms and can lead to storms rapidly growing stronger.
Despite the competing factors — a strong El Niño and warmer waters — experts still expect a below-normal year. However, experts say El Niño is less likely to dismantle quick-developing storms that form in the Gulf of Mexico and are more likely to threaten Tampa Bay.
“Most of the effects of an El Niño are deep in the tropics ... you could get the storms in the Gulf that have the short awareness times,” said Matthew Rosencrans, a lead hurricane season forecaster.
That’s why preparedness is key, he said.
Federal officials emphasized that residents should ready themselves for the hurricane season now, while skies are still blue and storms are a far-off thought.
Preparedness applies to coastal residents in danger of storm surge and to those who live inland, said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service. Flooding rains and cresting rivers pose their own dangers to those who live further from the shore.
“June 1 is almost here,” Jacobs said. “Be ready. Have a plan.”
Times staff writers Jack Prator and Max Chesnes contributed to this report.
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